Here's why it'll be hard for the yuan to replace the dollar even in the next 20 years, according Stanford historian Niall Ferguson (2024)

FAQs

Why won't the yuan replace the dollar? ›

One key challenge for any currency taking on the US dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency is the greenback's dominance. Right now, even the euro's role is larger than the yuan. In April, 43% of all global payments made via SWIFT were made in the US dollar, while 32% were made in the euro.

This means that instead of more countries utilizing the yuan in cross-border transactions, China has increased its percentage of international transactions in the yuan. While this is still a blow to the USD as a global reserve currency, it is not enough to replace it yet.

But that begs a critical question: What would replace the dollar? Some say it will be the euro; others, perhaps the Japanese yen or China's renminbi. And some call for a new world reserve currency, possibly based on the IMF's Special Drawing Right or SDR, a reserve asset.

The most important driver of the CNY's exchange rate against the dollar these days is the interest rate differential between the US and China: the bigger that gap gets, the weaker the renminbi, since the market prefers holding higher-yielding US dollars than lower-yielding CNY.

“Despite substantial backing, the likelihood of this initiative posing a serious threat to U.S. dollar supremacy is minimal, due to [its] integral role … in global finance, the comparative stability of the U.S., and the lack of cohesion within the BRICS consortium,” Truong said.

The US dollar will never be replace as the official currency of the US. If you are referring the the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency of the world, that is unlikely to happen any time in the foreseeable future.

If the world stops using the dollar as its reserve currency, it could have a significant impact on the U.S. stock market. A shift away from the dollar could lead to a decline in demand for U.S. financial assets, including stocks. This could result in a decrease in stock prices and potentially lead to a bear market.

And in times of international stress, investors flock to U.S. Treasuries as a way to stabilize the value of their assets. "I do not expect to see the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world's reserve currency anytime soon, nor even see a significant decline in its primacy in trade and finance," Waller said.

International Debt and Financial Stability: As the reserve status of the dollar diminishes, countries holding significant amounts of US dollar-denominated debt may experience financial turbulence. Exchange rate fluctuations and potential defaults could undermine financial stability in both debtor and creditor nations.

Southeast Asian. A group of Southeast Asian countries in the region, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Thailand, are currently contemplating the process of de-dollarization in order to diminish their dependence on the US dollar within their economies.

Why are countries ditching the U.S. dollar? ›

The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades, but its dominance is fading. Sanctions against Russia have spurred other countries into considering backup currencies for trade. US monetary policies, the strong USD, and structural shift in the global oil trade also contribute.

What Currency Is Strongest Against the Dollar? If you're wondering what currencies are better than the U.S. dollar, the best answer would be the Kuwaiti dinar (KWD), the official currency of Kuwait, which is the strongest currency in the world.

Replacing the dollar would be hard

The U.S. dollar's dominance is underappreciated. As of late-2022, the greenback accounts for 59.79% of total foreign reserves. In comparison, the Euro accounts for 19.66%, while the Chinese renminbi accounts for just 2.76% of global reserves.

Beijing is not, for now, attempting to make the yuan an internationalized currency. It does not seek to dethrone the U.S. dollar and replace the dollar's dominance in the global system with the yuan.

If the world stops using the dollar as its reserve currency, it could have a significant impact on the U.S. stock market. A shift away from the dollar could lead to a decline in demand for U.S. financial assets, including stocks. This could result in a decrease in stock prices and potentially lead to a bear market.

Key Takeaways. China invests heavily in U.S. Treasury bonds to keep its export prices lower. China focuses on export-led growth to help generate jobs. To keep its export prices low, China must keep the renminbi low compared to the U.S. dollar.