Are S&P 500 ETFs a good investment?
For investors who want to get in on the action, the good news is that investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 index is an easily accessible strategy. But experts say it also deserves a word of caution: Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
However, this strategy is not bulletproof. Simply put, only investing in the S&P 500 is not a wise strategy for the long-term intelligent investor because it ignores some fundamental principles of diversification and historical unpredictability.
Investing $1,000 a month for 20 years would leave you with around $687,306. The specific amount you end up with depends on your returns -- the S&P 500 has averaged 10% returns over the last 50 years. The more you invest (and the earlier), the more you can take advantage of compound growth.
So, if you had invested in S&P Global a decade ago, you're probably feeling pretty good about your investment today. A $1000 investment made in November 2013 would be worth $5,574.88, or a gain of 457.49%, as of November 16, 2023, according to our calculations.
In 1980, had you invested a mere $1,000 in what went on to become the top-performing stock of S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.63%), then you would be sitting on a cool $1.2 million today. That equates to a total return of 120,936%. The stock? None other than Gap (GPS 4.66%).
ETFs can be safe investments if used correctly, offering diversification and flexibility. Indexed ETFs, tracking specific indexes like the S&P 500, are generally safe and tend to gain value over time. Leveraged ETFs can be used to amplify returns, but they can be riskier due to increased volatility.
ETFs make a great pick for many investors who are starting out as well as for those who simply don't want to do all the legwork required to own individual stocks. Though it's possible to find the big winners among individual stocks, you have strong odds of doing well consistently with ETFs.
Once you have $1 million in assets, you can look seriously at living entirely off the returns of a portfolio. After all, the S&P 500 alone averages 10% returns per year. Setting aside taxes and down-year investment portfolio management, a $1 million index fund could provide $100,000 annually.
If you'd invested back in October 2022 when the S&P 500 bottomed out, you'd have earned substantial returns by today. But hindsight is 20/20, and since you can't go back in time, your only options are to invest now or wait. Between those two options, investing now is almost always more lucrative.
If the S&P 500 outperforms its historical average and generates, say, a 12% annual return, you would reach $1 million in 26 years by investing $500 a month.
How much will I have if I invest $100 a month for 20 years?
| If you invest $100 a month for this many years... | ...this is how much you'll end up with. |
|---|---|
| 10 | $21,037.40 |
| 15 | $41,939.68 |
| 20 | $75,603.00 |
| 25 | $129,818.12 |
If you had made monthly contributions over that time, you'd have made much more money. Over the past 20 years, the index has gained a total average annual return of around 10%. If you initially invested $10,000 and added $100 per month, you'd have $136,000 today. Image source: Investor.gov.
| Years Invested | Balance At the End of the Period |
|---|---|
| 10 | $102,422 |
| 20 | $379,684 |
| 30 | $1,130,244 |
| 40 | $3,162,040 |
Ten Year Stock Price Total Return for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is calculated as follows: Last Close Price [ 514.95 ] / Adj Prior Close Price [ 154.12 ] (-) 1 (=) Total Return [ 234.1% ] Prior price dividend adjustment factor is 0.83.
For example, if an investment scheme promises an 8% annual compounded rate of return, it will take approximately nine years (72 / 8 = 9) to double the invested money.
According to Ramsey's tweet, investing $100 per month for 40 years gives you an account value of $1,176,000. Ramsey's assumptions include a 12% annual rate of return, which some critics have labeled as optimistic given that the long-term average annual return of the S&P 500 index is closer to 10%.
$1,000 in 1934 has the same purchasing power as $22,450.75 in 2024. Over the 90 years this is a change of $21,450.75. The average inflation rate of the dollar between 1934 and 2024 was 2.29% per year. The cumulative price increase of the dollar over this time was -100.00%.
Meanwhile, if you only invest in S&P 500 ETFs, you won't beat the broad market. Rather, you can expect your portfolio's performance to be in line with that of the broad market. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. See, over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual 10% return.
The S&P 500 also offers instant diversification, since your money gets invested in 503 different stocks across all 11 stock market sectors. But you typically don't want to be 100% invested in stocks, particularly as you get closer to retirement.
Why I don t invest in ETFs?
The single biggest risk in ETFs is market risk. Like a mutual fund or a closed-end fund, ETFs are only an investment vehicle—a wrapper for their underlying investment. So if you buy an S&P 500 ETF and the S&P 500 goes down 50%, nothing about how cheap, tax efficient, or transparent an ETF is will help you.
At any given time, the spread on an ETF may be high, and the market price of shares may not correspond to the intraday value of the underlying securities. Those are not good times to transact business. Make sure you know what an ETF's current intraday value is as well as the market price of the shares before you buy.
ETFs offer advantages over stocks in two situations. First, when the return from stocks in the sector has a narrow dispersion around the mean, an ETF might be the best choice. Second, if you are unable to gain an advantage through knowledge of the company, an ETF is your best choice.
Can you lose all your money from investing in ETFs even if you don't sell your position? Hypothetically: Yes. Practically: No. ETFs are stocks which derive their values from the underlying stocks of net assets of an investment.
The key to keeping your money safe
The index itself has a long history of earning positive returns over time and recovering from downturns. While there are never any guarantees when it comes to investing, opting for an S&P 500 index fund or ETF is about as close to guaranteed long-term returns as you can get.
